The biggest football tournament in history kicks off June 11. 48 teams, 104 matches, 3 host nations. Here's what our model is watching.
1. Spain — The Quiet Favorite
The Euro 2024 champions head into the World Cup peaking. Our engine has them at the top of group-stage xG. Watch the group opener for value.
2. France — Always There
Mbappé, Tchouaméni, Camavinga. France's depth in attack-mid-defense is unmatched. Quarterfinal floor at minimum.
3. Argentina — The Champions' Curse?
Defending champions historically underperform. Argentina lost key veterans since 2022. Our model rates them lower than the public does.
4. Brazil — Restored
With Endrick, Vitor Roque, and Estêvão coming through, Brazil's attack has young teeth. Underrated relative to recent failures.
5. England — The Eternal Question
Same story every tournament. Talent says semis, history says quarters. Bellingham's form will decide.
6. Germany — Home Advantage Doesn't Apply
Not hosting this one. Without home crowd in Berlin, Germany drops a tier in our model.
7-10: The Dark Horses
Portugal, Netherlands, Morocco, and Senegal are our model's value picks. Morocco specifically — semifinalists in 2022, deeper now.
The Real Test
Match-by-match predictions update daily on Pitch IQ. Group stage starts June 11. Open the app for the full breakdown.